Why large conspiracies are mathematically impossible.
"Three may keep a secret if two of them are dead" - Benjamin Franklin
1. Why conspiracy theories are more dangerous than real conspiracies.
2. Critical distinctions between Conspiracies, Cooperation, Manipulation and Conspiracy Theories.
3. The differences between true Conspiracies and Conspiracy Theories.
4. How can we know that conspiracy theories are wrong?
5. Elementary Probability: Boys and girls in a family.
6. The Binomial Distribution.
7. The Binomial Distribution and coin flips.
8. The Binomial Distribution and conspiracy theories.
9. Parameters of the Binomial Distribution.
c. Under what conditions will conspiracies fail?
10. Conspiracies theories involving voter fraud
a. A small and specific lie.
b. A large and general lie.
11. Why scientists are very unreliable conspirators.
a. Competition among many small providers.
b. The grant process creates a plethora of “losers”
c. Scientists are not nice enough to be good conspirators
d. Corporate money and conflicts of interest.
e. Are Scientists, Government Officials, and the media evil super-(wo)men?
12. The conspiracy theory that Climate Change is a hoax.
a. Why the Climate Change conspiracy theory is itself the hoax
b. Why “Climategate” actually proves that Climate Change is NOT a hoax.
13. The Anti-Vaxx conspiracy theory.
14. Time as a variable in the failure of conspiracies,
15. Sophistry about Statistics
16. What this does and does not mean.